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Abstract

Background: Water is a basic element of life and it has become increasingly needed nowadays, especially in areas with low rainfall, due to the great development in various aspects of life. Objectives: The objective of this research is to study the rainfall in ALHWAIZ basin to explain the behavior of the time series and applying one model of Box-Jenkins models to predict the future amounts. Methods: The Statistical analysis study was based on annual rainfall data for 59 years, and Through it we found the best model to represent the data after doing the wanted tests on model residuals. also, we dividing the data to 53 years to build the model and 6 years to test it, and finding the best forecasted model depending on the smallest of weighted mean of criteria RMSE, MAP, MAE. Results: This research finds that Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA Model) ARIMA (1,1,3) model is a good representation of the data, and ARIMA (2,1,0) model is the right model to forecast future rainfall which was decreasing amounted to 6.13 mm per year during the studied period. Conclusions: The study reveals that ARIMA model can be used as a good forecasting tool in forecasting the annual rainfall in ALHWAIZ basin.
Keywords: ALHWAIZ basin, ARIMA Model, Rainfall.